Not much will be able to change about the recent analysis until markets actually make a move. In a nutshell, the recent analysis holds that we’ve been waiting for a breakout from a consolidative range that began with the highs and lows seen in October. Every subsequent high/low has occurred in an increasingly narrow range.
In technical terms (i.e. when we apply math to the market movement in order to glean cues on momentum and important levels) bonds are behaving slightly bullishly within the confines of this narrow range. To wit, some short-term momentum indicators like the Fast Stochastic (in the middle section of the following chart) are actually suggesting bonds are ‘overbought.’ That’s largely a factor of the narrow range though. It makes more sense to pay more attention to the range itself right now, or to broader metrics like Bollinger Bands (yellow lines), which suggest a micro-range from 2.30%-2.35%
In terms of events today, the econ data is 2nd tier at best. Bonds will be more interested in the completion of the week’s Treasury auction cycle with 7yr Notes at 1pm as well as the confirmation hearing of incoming Fed Chair Powell. Beyond that, we remain sensitive to any political headlines that suggest the scales are tipping in favor of any particular outcome on tax reform, though it is likely still too early for anything conclusive.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
102-30 : +0-03
2.3188 : -0.0092
|Pricing as of 11/28/17 9:27AMEST|
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar