The biggest worry for the industry is a continuing price war that is threatening profits. Talk of industry consolidation among the 70 or so providers is already in the air.
You can see it in the fund flows. It’s pretty cheap to own the S&P 500 these days. The biggest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), will cost you a measly 9 basis points — that’s $9 a year for every $10,000 you own.
But the competitors have slashed prices: The iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) and the Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO), virtually the same products, charge only 4 basis points. That’s $4 for every $10,000 you own.
That makes them $5 a year cheaper than SPY.
You would think, who’s going to switch investments over just $5 a year? As it turns out, a lot of people.
In the biggest year ever for ETFs, the SPY has lost assets and its cheaper competitors have gained assets:
S&P 500 ETFs
(2017 net flows)
SPDR S&P 500 $3.7 billion outflow
iShares Core S&P 500 $26.9 billion inflow
Vanguard S&P 500 $12 billion inflow
This is true with other products.
How much longer this can go on is the hot topic in the industry. How much money can you make, how many people can you support, when there is a race to the bottom on fees? The good news is the industry is raking in new cash, which is helping revenue.
But there are now nearly 2,000 ETFs and some 70 ETF providers. Eventually, there will be consolidation.