Much like yesterday’s session, today saw bond markets begin the day in slightly weaker territory only to rally into slightly stronger territory by the end of the session. There were no singular, overt market movers, but rather a slow, steady, linear trend throughout the day.
ISM Manufacturing did come in slightly weaker than expected, and I would imagine a few old school market watchers would connect the dots between weaker economic data and a bond rally. I’d normally push back on that old school approach with both hands, but in today’s case, we actually did end up seeing a general uptick in volume accompanying a mild leg of the rally shortly after 10am (when the data came out).
All that having been said, bonds were still weaker on the day heading into the noon hour. It wasn’t until stocks began selling-off that bonds found more justification to move into positive territory. Mind you, that argument could be made in reverse as well. Bonds were caught up in heavy “curve trading” today where 2yr yields were rising and 10yr yields were falling. The spread between the two surged to its narrowest levels since the financial crisis. The narrowing of the yield curve is seen by some as a negative indicator for stocks.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
102-25 : +0-03
2.3527 : -0.0263
|Pricing as of 12/5/17 5:33PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
12:55PM : Bonds Turn Green on Curve Trading and Time Travel
10:21AM : Weaker ISM Report Stands Aside for “Curve Trading”
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Matt Hodges : “Great huddle, MG. Very good technical analysis and commentary about lenders’ potentially holding back gains on fears of tax bill passage.”