We’re Supposed to Have a Tough Time

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Both yesterday and the day before, bonds closed in stronger territory than the previous day’s close.  That’s the first time that’s happened since early November, and one of the few times it’s happened in several months.  The other occurrences in that time frame all acted as mere corrections in a broader move toward higher rates (the move that brought us into the current sideways range).

Yesterday’s gains also brought yields to the lower end of the consolidative range seen in today’s chart inside the teal lines.  If the range is the range, then we’re supposed to have a tough time making any additional gains today.  If, on the other hand, we DO manage to make decent gains, it could be a sign about latent bond buying demand.  In order to get very excited about that, we’d ideally want to see the 2.28% level broken in 10yr yields–something that hasn’t happened since August 1st.

Economic data continues to be unimportant.  Apart from the tax bill debate and government shutdown drama, markets have one eye on next week’s central bank announcements (Fed and ECB).  The Fed is widely expected to hike, but they’ll also be releasing updated rate hike forecasts, which have been fairly consistent market movers in March, June, Sept, and Dec.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

102-29 : +0-01

Treasuries

10 YR

2.3296 : -0.0004

Pricing as of 12/7/17 9:21AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Dec 07
7:30 Challenger layoffs (k) Nov 29.831
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 240 238



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