He said restaurants were most affected. “It was down 98,000 in September and up only 89,000 in October. That’s usually about 20,000 a month. I don’t think we got back to normal in October,” he said.
Diane Swonk, CEO of DS Economics, expects to see 180,000 payrolls added in November, but does not expected a positive impact from retail hiring even though it is holiday shopping season. The trend of shoppers moving toward online merchants should continue to show up in the data instead.
“We might see a decline in retail,” she said. “They’re just not going to be staffing up a lot because they actually have closed a lot of stores.” There could be an increase in warehouse jobs related to online retail.
Stanley said he expects the Fed to keep its interest rate forecast at three hikes for next year when it meets next week. But he expects the Fed could actually raise four times.
If the wage data are particularly strong, markets could begin to expect a more hawkish Fed. The markets currently see two rate hikes for next year.
Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he expects a below-consensus 150,000 jobs Friday. Tilley said one reason is that the labor market is tight, and it’s taking a long time for employers to fill openings. “It’s getting very challenging to hire people,” he said.