Mostly a Chart Showing The Worst is Over

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If you weren’t already noticing that the worst of this week’s selling spree was over with yesterday’s ground-holding, today’s early trading essentially confirms it.  I put a couple technical indicators in the chart below that we don’t revisit too frequently, but that do a good job of showing what’s been happening in the past few weeks.  

NOTE: this is an hour-to-hour chart as opposed to day-to-day.  I’ll break down my observations in bullet points because it’s the day before x-mas weekend and who needs overly-wordy commentary?

  • Big, successive breaks beyond an outer bollinger band signal an ‘intact’ sell-off.  When yesterday’s trading failed to break the upper bollinger band, that was a good sign
  • Declining peaks in RSI is a good sign in general, but breaking below the red line after those peaks is even better
  • Yesterday’s lower set of peaks in MACD complemented the declining peaks in RSI and the failed bollinger band breakout attempt.  As the MACD bars began to decline, it suggested the selling-spree was over.  Breaking below the zero line overnight confirms it.  

If it weren’t the day before x-mas weekend, the break below the MACD line (or the red line in RSI) would be “buying triggers” to some (signals to buy bonds).  Holiday weekend or not, we can at least read this as a “no more selling” signal.

There is some economic data today, but we wouldn’t expect it to matter.  Bonds close early at 2pm ET, though most traders have already clocked out mentally (if not physically).  Monday is a full closure for Christmas Day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

102-09 : +0-01

Treasuries

10 YR

2.4846 : +0.0016

Pricing as of 12/22/17 9:34AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Dec 22
8:30 Personal Income (%)* Nov 0.4 0.4
8:30 Consumer Spending (Consumption) (%) Nov 0.5 0.3
8:30 Core PCE (y/y) (%)* Nov 1.5 1.4
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Nov 0.5 0.3
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Nov 2.0 -0.8
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Nov 0.654 0.685
10:00 U Mich 1Yr Inf Final (%) Dec 2.8
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) Dec 97.1 96.8
10:00 U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final (%) Dec 2.5
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Nov -4.7 6.2



Original Source