Bond markets sent a fairly clear message today: don’t expect much tomorrow. Trading activity is dying down in the same sort of way it did last Thursday. In both cases, Tuesday and Wednesday saw big moves (exacerbated by illiquidity. In both cases, Thursday was markedly different and in both cases, there was a half-day on Friday and a full closure on the following Monday.
There’s one other similarity. In both cases, Thursday saw bonds move in the opposite direction when compared to the bigger move from the two preceding days. Since this week’s big move was in a friendly direction, that means bonds were slightly weaker today. Economic data and events had nothing to do with the weakness. It was just the byproduct of the illiquid rally on Tuesday and especially Wednesday.
We’re still waiting on early January to get a more meaningful reading on the next wave of momentum. If we had to pick a side right now, it would be easier to make a case for a moderately weaker trend (based purely on underlying technicals). One of the key reasons for this is that 10yr yields refused to break back below the 2.40-2.42 zone. Not only has that been an important pivot point, but it also falls right on the line of “lower highs” in yields that served as the upper end of the consolidative trend we’d been tracking in the 4th quarter.
More simply put, yields broke through their ceiling last week and now show signs of treating that ceiling like a floor.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
102-17 : -0-04
2.4341 : +0.0221
|Pricing as of 12/28/17 5:59PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
1:49PM : Slightly Weaker After Auction (Not Necessarily Because of It)
10:06AM : Bonds Little-Changed After Morning Data
MBS Live Chat Highlights
David Goldberg : “County DD, at least here. We had some historic floods last dec and limits are suspending in St. Louis City And St. Louis County”
Dan Draitser : “Someone here mentioned yesterday that HR and HP income limits are suspended in disaster areas. Does that apply to the entire county or by zip code?”
Hugh W. Page : “Interesting. We ended the year at 2.44 on the 10 year TSY last year and look where we sit today.”