First Econ Data of the Year Plus Fed Minutes

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Today brings the first significant economic data of the new year in the form of ISM Manufacturing at 10am.  During times when markets are actively responding to economic data, this is one of the most important reports.  It is traditionally one of the few consistent runners-up to nonfarm payrolls in terms of market movement potential.

These days, however, the market’s inclination to respond to top tier econ data is questionable at best.  CPI (the Consumer Price Index) seems to be the only top tier economic report in sight and we’ll have to wait until next Friday to see that.

In addition to econ data, Fed policy a perennial market mover.  In that vein, we have the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting today (released at 2pm).  There is no new policy information released in the minutes, but it can give market participants some insight to the Fed’s line of thinking. 

Minutes that follow the meetings with updated economic projections (aka “dots”) are potentially more interesting as the associated insights can speak directly to the future rate hike trajectory.  Specifically, traders may be looking for clues that the average Fed member is starting to think about rates leveling off in 2018.  Any confirmation of those clues would be good for rates–not so much because they’d guarantee a bond rally, but rather because they’d help reinforce recent ceilings.

From a technical standpoint, the more important order of business for bond markets would be to break back below previous ceilings.  These can be drawn at various places depending on your preference, but two good candidates are derived from the top trendlines of the two most basic trends of Q4, 2017 (linear trend channel and the consolidation pattern in teal and yellow respectively).


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

102-22 : +0-04

Treasuries

10 YR

2.4434 : -0.0216

Pricing as of 1/3/18 9:36AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jan 03
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Dec 58.1 58.2
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Nov 0.5 1.4



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