Today is most easily discussed based on what it wasn’t.
Today wasn’t a big selling day. That’s nice to see–especially in 2018, and especially with mid-day weakness challenging recent ceilings in 10yr yields just over 2.83%.
But perhaps more noticeably, today wasn’t a big rally day. In fact, bonds had every opportunity for an exploratory push into the best recent levels, but they ended up shying away time and again. This shyness played out in the overnight session, in the morning hours, and again in the afternoon when headlines regarding a Mueller Subpoena of Trump organization members ostensibly provided a green light for the “risk-off” move.
Stock, for example, stuck to the risk-off guns by falling to the day’s lowest levels after the Mueller headlines. Bonds, on the hand, didn’t even make it back to the 10am-11am levels, let alone the lower yields seen even earlier in the morning. In the following chart, the blue line is S&P futures and the yellow line is 10yr Treasury yields.
If we had to pick one takeaway from the past 2 days of trading it would be that we may be witnessing a 2nd bounce at the 2.80% level (as seen on March 1st). Taking that a step further, there’s a risk that the weakness extends a bit ahead of next week’s Fed announcement. Admittedly, this is the more defensive way to read the current environment. In the bigger picture, bonds were technically able to hold on the good side of some important indicators for the first time all year. If you go with that more optimistic stance, be sure to read the caveats I laid out in the Day Ahead.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
99-27 : -0-01
2.8262 : +0.0092
|Pricing as of 3/15/18 4:41PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
3:37PM : Mueller Headlines Help, But Only to Restore Bonds to Narrow Range
12:50PM : ALERT ISSUED: At Weakest Levels; Reprice Risk Considerations
8:53AM : Little-Changed After AM Econ Data
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Scott Valins : “no movement on the political news?”
Oliver Orlicki : “2.8 strong like bull”