Bond markets closed early today and will be fully closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. It was also “month-end,” which can bring in additional compulsory volume from traders who have to make certain trades by the end of the month.
One group of traders certainly already got their fill over the past few days: short-sellers (those betting on rates moving higher). In the face of moderate bond rallies, short sellers were forced to cut bait and close their trades. When it comes to shorts, this is accomplished by BUYING bonds.
That bond buying helped fuel snowball rally momentum this week as lower yields only forced more short sellers to cover. Today suggested they had no intention of “re-shorting” bonds ahead of the 3.5-day weekend. That left bond buyers in control, and allowed the lowest volume trading day of the week to deliver yields to their lowest levels.
It continues to be a risk that this week’s rally relies too much on temporary factors. As such, we are on guard for bounce potential early next week. If we DON’T see a noticeable bounce, the entire 2018 narrative will need to be tweaked (and in a GOOD way, for once!).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
100-06 : +0-06
2.7407 : -0.0343
|Pricing as of 3/29/18 2:45PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
9:55AM : Bonds Holding Modest Gains After NYSE Open/Chicago PMI