First Treasury Auction; Not The Price Index You’re Looking For

0
204


[ccpw id=”6606″]

Although today’s 8:30am data has the trigger phrase “price index,” it’s not the price index you’re looking for.  That will come tomorrow in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  Today’s Producer Price Index (PPI)  measures the shift in input costs at the wholesale level. 

PPI only ever matters if it coincides with an increase in CPI, so markets just assume wait for CPI when it comes to bigger bond market reactions.  PPI is only really useful if it’s doing something so big that investors can’t help but assume it will translate to a move in CPI.  Even then, past precedent doesn’t suggest a ton of correlation–unless it’s between oil prices and producer prices.

As such, the day is beginning with PPI at the highest levels in years but without any incremental damage to bonds.  There was some slight overnight weakness, but in general, both stocks and bonds are hesitating to move above yesterday’s highs.

2018-4-10 open

The afternoon brings the week’s first Treasury auction in the form of 3-year notes.  Here too, this isn’t the Treasury auction you’re looking for.  While 3’s CAN have SOME small impact if the results are crazy enough, it’s really tomorrow’s 10yr and Thursday’s 30yr auctions that have more potential to cause a reaction in the bonds we care about.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

100-04 : -0-01

Treasuries

10 YR

2.7954 : +0.0094

Pricing as of 4/10/18 9:16AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 10
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Mar 2.6 2.5
8:30 Core Producer Prices MM (%)* Mar 0.2 0.2
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Mar 0.1 0.2
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Feb 0.9 1.1
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30



Original Source