The average gap higher in that period was 4.7 percent. Then Birinyi measured the performance from the opening price to the closing price on the next day, and found Apple has traded lower 65 percent of the time for an average 0.92 percent decline from the open to close.
Apple earnings are due after Tuesday’s market close.
In the last earnings period, Apple reported earnings on Feb. 1 and saw its stock decline 1 percent from when it reported earnings in the afternoon to the final trade in the pre-market, before the opening bell. It then traded down 3.3 percent from the opening bell to the close.
Apple is expected to earn $2.68 per share for its fiscal second quarter, up from $2.10 a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters. Revenue is expected to come in at $60.9 billion, up 15 percent from a year ago.
Birinyi said the company has beaten earnings estimates 89 percent of the time since 2009 and revenue forecasts 78 percent of the time.
As of early Tuesday, the possible move implied by the options in Apple stock could be 5.2 percent in either direction, or $8.70, Birinyi said. Apple was trading at $167.97, up 1.6 percent in afternoon trading. Its average reporting day move is a gain of 1.5 percent.
Apple on average has gained 2 percent in the week after its earnings report.