With U.S. crude falling for the fifth straight day on Tuesday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer and technician Carley Garner took to the charts to investigate the likelihood of a further drop or a possible rally.
Garner, the co-founder of DeCarley Trading, thinks a breakdown to $55 a barrel is much more likely from these levels than a breakout up to $80 per barrel. She even sees the possibility of oil dropping into the high $40s.
“The charts, as interpreted by Carley Garner, they suggest that today’s weakness in oil is not the end, people. She’s saying more pain,” the host of “Mad Money” said.
“We’ve got to take her seriously. She’s been too right to ignore.”
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude closed down $1.15, or 1.7 percent, at $66.73 a barrel on Tuesday.
Garner believes the selloff is justifiable since the earlier rally to over $70 a barrel was due to irrational exuberance.
“Historically, the oil futures market is like a seesaw: traders crowd into one side of the trade and the when it gets overloaded, they flee to the other side en masse,” Cramer explained.
“While the recent pullback has lightened up the bullish side of the equation a bit, Garner still thinks that the oil futures market is very heavily over-weighted to the long side and in her view that kind of thing inevitably leads to a big liquidation,” he added.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that liquidation will be immediate.
If oil holds at $60, Garner would be relatively neutral.
“However, she does think that there’s a decent chance we could see a quick probe down toward $55, another powerful floor of support,” Cramer said. “Less likely: oil could break down into the $40s.”
Garner would be positive on U.S. crude in the mid $50s and if it falls to $47.50 or $43.50, she thinks it would be a “screaming buy.”