If we look solely at the US trading hours, yesterday and today form a nearly perfect 2-day trend just slightly higher in rate. Fannie 4.0 MBS prices have similarly shed 3/32nds (0.09) in a well-behaved trend channel. If we include the full trading session, however, yesterday was the bigger deal and today was an afterthought. On the other hand, yesterday was extremely slow in terms of volume. Today wasn’t too much better, but it was active enough to suggest yesterday’s selling wasn’t a fluke.
We won’t see the first opportunity for bonds to digest any major econ data until Thursday morning (CPI) although tomorrow’s PPI report is certainly a step up from today. We’ll also get the 10yr Treasury auction in the afternoon, which is more relevant than today’s 3yr version.
Bottom line, we’re watching a narrow range between 2.825% and 2.885% in terms of 10yr yields (and have been since late June). The next break can’t be confirmed without Thursday’s CPI reaction. If it looks like we’re breaking out tomorrow, it would be more of a “lead-off” from a technical standpoint, barring some crazy, unexpected development in the news.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
101-29 : -0-02
2.8674 : +0.0074
|Pricing as of 7/10/18 4:36PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
1:45PM : 3yr Auction Not Helping Shorter-Term Debt
11:08AM : Very Quiet–Especially For MBS
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Ted Rood : “just because rates are virtually same as fixed? How odd!”
Sung Kim : “i heard americans are still shunning adjustable rate mortgages – any truth to this?”