Jeffrey Gundlach believes the U.S. stock market can’t diverge from global equity markets forever.
The bond investor noted the S&P 500 was strangely outperforming the rest of the world’s equity markets since the summer into this month.
“I said [before] … if the global stock [market] is going to take out the low and put in a new low, something bad must be happening. I don’t think the U.S. can hold in there,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report.” “Well what happened as rates broke to the upside … the global stock market ex-U.S. did take a new leg down and did go to a 12-month low. And it’s interesting the S&P 500 did what I said. … That is join the global stock market on the way down.”
Relative performance of S&P 500 (blue) versus Rest of World ex-U.S. (green) YTD
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by more than 800 points and the S&P 500 fell by 3.3 percent as investors worried about the negative effects from the rising interest rate environment .
The sell-off came a day after the 10-year note yield traded above 3.25 percent hitting its highest level since 2011. This occurred about a week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview with PBS that the central bank is a “long way” from getting rates to neutral, which pointed to a possibly more aggressive path for rate hikes.
The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF, which tracks the performance of a rest of the world ex-U.S. equity index, is down 10 percent this year through Wednesday versus the S&P 500’s 4 percent gain.
Gundlach is founder and CEO of DoubleLine. He is known for his investment acumen in the fixed income markets. DoubleLine has assets under management of more than $120 billion, according to its website.