MBS Day Ahead: Is it Over?


Posted To: MBS Commentary

Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over? I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and even every time they spike aggressively after hitting multi-month lows. It's a bit of an unfair conversation. As long as you are capable of understanding that rates can't go perpetually lower, you will have a big leg up on anyone who asks you "is it over?" It was never going to last forever in the first place! Let's back up a bit and talk about what's going on in the short term. Simply put , we were hoping to see 10yr yields bounce at a ceiling of 2.60%. We were somewhat optimistic about that after seeing Tuesday's candlestick break lower from the upper Bollinger Band line seen in the following chart, but with plenty…(read more)

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