Research: Sunny days increase credit card spending


‘Sunshine effect’ increases spending

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Writes about banking, credit cards and mobile finance.

Research shows we spend a more carelessly when it's sunny

Not to throw shade, but when there are no
clouds in the sky, consumers may want to be more wary of their wallets: Extreme
sunlight could be setting us up to spend more than we normally would.

New research from the Georgetown McDonough School of Business and Columbia
Business School found that “abnormal sunshine” may lead consumers to
buy more expensive goods than they otherwise would. The so-called
“sunshine effect” increases a consumer’s annual median credit card
spending by $979, the researchers found.

“Somehow we tend to become more upbeat or
the mood is brighter and we tend to buy things we wouldn’t have bought, like
better perfume or a better jacket,” says Sumit Agarwal, a professor of finance at Georgetown University and one of the
study’s authors. “We spend a little bit more, and we don’t shop

The effect can be countered if people are
reminded not to overvalue goods during extreme sunlight. Businesses also could
learn from the research, Agarwal says, and adjust prices during especially
sunny stretches.

Some are affected more than others

For the study, researchers looked at eight
months of anonymized credit card data provided by an unnamed U.S. bank covering
the transactions of 52,371 U.S. consumers. They then matched weather data from
the National Climate Data Center to the transactions.

Here’s what researchers found:

  • More spending: Above average sunshine
    leads to a nearly “1 percent increase in daily total credit card
    spending,” when controlling for other weather conditions, including rain,
    wind and temperature.
  • More expensive items: Consumers don’t buy
    more things; they buy more expensive things, although shoppers tend to be
    “fairly rational on the big-ticket items,” Agarwal says. In other
    words, we buy fancier shoes when the sun’s out, not necessarily fancier cars.
  • Young adults are immune: The sunshine effect
    doesn’t appear to impact the spending habits of young adults.
  • Some people are more susceptible: The spending spike is
    more pronounced in consumers with higher incomes, women, people who are married
    and among consumers who live in the southern U.S. or places with fewer sunny
    days than average.

The sunshine effect is meaningful, Agarwal
says, but it’s not likely to cause people to really blow their budgets. The
bigger picture, he says, is how weather in general impacts consumer spending –
and how shifts in weather patterns can impact the economy as a whole.

“If we think about what is happening to
global weather, we’ve seen big shifts over the last 10 years,” Agarwal
says. “Extreme weather will affect consumption. That will have an effect
on GDP.”

“Somehow we tend to become more upbeat or
the mood is brighter, and we tend to buy things we wouldn’t have bought, like
better perfume or a better jacket.”

More than sunshine affects spending, prices

The sunshine effect study is only the latest
to suggest that temperature and weather impacts what we buy and how much we

Previous research has shown, for example, that car
dealerships sell 5.4 percent more convertible automobiles
on days when the temperature is 20 degrees higher than normal, that
with swimming pools
fetch an average
selling price 0.2 percentage points higher than expected during the summer
months and 0.16 percentage points lower during the winter and that a big
winter storm
can significantly trim consumer spending.

Still, temperature has a much more profound
impact on consumer spending than does sunlight or precipitation, says Bill
Kirk, CEO and co-founder of Weather
Trends International
, which offers
year-ahead forecasts to help businesses better plan inventory.

“You buy sun care [product] in the spring
when you perceive it to be spring,” Kirk says. “You could really have
a cold, sunny, dry April and you’re not buying sun care.”

Even minor changes in temperature affects what
we buy, Kirk says. A 1-degree temperature drop increases coffee consumption by
2 percent, while hot dog bun sales increase by 3 percent every time the
temperature increases a degree.

Big retailers plan for this, but they make
their buying decisions nine months to a year out, which is why consumers can
score particularly good deals when a long stretch of unusual weather occurs,
Kirk says. You may see huge discounts on winter coats after a warm fall, for
example, as stores look to clear inventory because nobody is buying.

“The weather does funny things to
spending in general,” but extreme weather can have a particular impact,
says Glenn Fodor, senior vice president of competitive intelligence for
payments company First Data.

“If you can’t spend because something
happens, chances are you’ll spend at a later date.”

His firm studied spending patterns before and
after two major hurricanes made landfall in 2017 along U.S. coasts. Retail
spending increased in the week before Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma hit
as consumers prepared for the storms by stocking up at grocery and hardware
stores. Spending then crashed 58.7 percent week over week in Houston and 55.7
percent in Florida at the peak of the hurricanes.

What’s more, gas purchases fell by
double-digit percentages as the hurricanes hit, while prices spiked as much as
25 percent in some ZIP codes, First Data’s analysis of brick-and-mortar and e-commerce
transaction data from more than 100,000 businesses found.

Spending levels returned to normal levels
shortly after the storms passed.

“By and large, spending does bounce back
once the shock is over,” Fodor says. “People go back to their lives at
a very quick rate.

“If you can’t spend because something
happens, chances are you’ll spend at a later date,” he says.

How to prepare for changes in weather

One way to counter spending habits that change
with changing weather or sunlight is to recognize how weather affects your mood
and act on it. Agarwal suggests consumers can respond by restricting credit
card usage during times of extreme sun.

R.J. Weiss, a Chicago-based certified
financial planner who has written about how to cut
down on winter spending
, says planning ahead
is key to maintaining spending discipline.

Make it fun by creating a list of cheap
alternatives to shopping or dining out – activities that you enjoy that can
counter unconscious spending urges brought on by weather.

“The goal is to make one good upfront
decision that may prevent harmful decisions later on,” he says. “For
example, if you tend to overspend when you find yourself out of the house,
don’t take your credit cards with you. Try instead to just carry cash.”

See related: How shorter, cooler days can trim your spending, When happy meds lead to depressing debt

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