For bonds (and almost for S&P futures as well), today was spent in roughly the same range as yesterday and well-within the range boundaries set by Friday’s trading. News stories are touting volatility in stocks. While that may be true inasmuch as the magnitude of day-to-day changes, trading has been essentially flat since March 26th (2656 vs 2658 closing levels).
Bonds are also in a consolidation pattern over the past few weeks, and none of today’s goings-on even remotely threatened to change that. There were headlines out overnight from an ECB (European Central Bank) official suggesting an increase in the deposit rate as a preliminary step toward an eventual rate hike. That pushed yields slightly higher at the open. A separate headline cited ECB officials as saying the first official doesn’t speak for the rest of the ECB. Bond yields quickly erased the initial move after that.
In the context of the recent range, however, any of these individual moves could easily be mistaken for random trading. As such, they don’t merit any serious focus in terms of assessing momentum and risks. It seems fairly clear that the biggest near-term risk is tomorrow morning’s CPI data (Consumer Price Index) which has been a consistent market mover for better or worse when it’s deviated from the median forecast. With tomorrow’s median forecast for Core year-over-year CPI jumping from 1.8% to 2.1%, the potential for a “miss” is bigger than it has been in recent months. Thus, the potential for bonds to break out of this consolidation is also higher.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
99-30 : -0-07
2.8009 : +0.0149
|Pricing as of 4/10/18 6:16PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
8:48AM : Slightly Weaker After PPI Data and ECB Comments
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Matthew Graham : “Good luck with “north of 4%,” ever…”
Matthew Graham : “RTRS – FUSS SAYS GEOPOLITCAL RISKS, ECONOMIC DETERIORATION COULD KEEP TREASURY YIELDS LOWER”
Matthew Graham : “RTRS – LOOMIS SAYLES VICE CHAIRMAN DAN FUSS SAYS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD COULD GO ‘NORTH OF 4 PCT’ WITHIN TWO YEARS”
Matthew Graham : “next to tomorrow’s data and auctions? yes”
Timothy Baron : “Cue MG saying triangles are meaningless.”
Timothy Baron : “10 yr about to break out? Quite the triangle today.”