Bonds Avoid Commitment to Begin Busy Week


[ccpw id=”6606″]

April was a bummer of a month for the bond market.  Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that–especially during the past 2 weeks.  Contrast that to March, which was decidedly, albeit mildly positive.  If bonds stick to this same pattern of clearly delineated monthly trading themes, the rest of the week could be interesting.  Today, however, was sort of a dud.

One barrier to excitement will be the “Golden Week” holidays in Japan, keeping the biggest Treasury trading contingent out of the office during Asian market hours.  Actually, it’s more fair to say that Golden Week is a barrier to volume early in any given trading session.  We can still see exciting moves occur in lower volume.  

The 8:30am PCE data was fairly uneventful with the Core year-over-year reading coming in at +1.9 vs a +1.9 forecast.  Traders who’d been waiting to make sure there wasn’t a more onerous inflation implication were thus able to join in the modest buying that seemed to underpin most of the session.  That constant, modest support is most easily viewed as a product of “month-end buying.”  Given that today was the last day for month-end trading, that makes tomorrow important in terms of assessing any new underlying trends for May’s bond trading.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


FNMA 3.5

99-06 : -0-03


10 YR

2.9550 : -0.0020

Pricing as of 4/30/18 4:35PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

8:49AM  :  Modest Improvement After Inflation Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights

Ted Rood  :  “Welcome. This site, and the LOs here, are a veritable font of knowledge.”

Victor Burek  :  “welcome to the site Mohamed”

Matt Hodges  :  “welcome on board…great resource for you”

Matt Hodges  :  “You are welcome. My commentary would be protect your floaters – keep them informed on risk, especially this week.”

Mohamed Madeni  :  “MH -New to this site. I did not look at the economic calendar, that’s exactly what I was looking for. Thank you”

Matt Hodges  :  “biggies include Fed, ADP, BLS, among inflation reports”

Matt Hodges  :  “there is risk.”

Mohamed Madeni  :  “any suggestions on float risk over the next five days?”

Sung Kim  :  “HReady does not”

Oliver Orlicki  :  “Does anyone know if the homeowner education courses expire”

Original Source