Bouncing at This Pivot Point is Still a Risk

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2.95% was the closing high for 10yr yields back in late February.  While we saw 10s move as low as 2.935 yesterday, that seemed to be a product of month-end bond buying.  The month-end momentum tends to run its course by the 3pm CME close, and we often see volatility in the final 2 hours of the domestic session.  That volatility can be thought of as bond markets “getting back to where they want to be” after being “forced” to be in a certain position for the end-of-month trades that are marked at 3pm.  

In yesterday’s case, yields got right back above 2.95%.  Now, today begins with bonds very little-changed from the overnight session.  The longer yields remain above 2.95% this week, the more it runs the risk of looking like a “ceiling/floor” pivot point.  For now, it’s fairly ominous, but that could easily change by the end of the day (of course, it could get worse too).  Either way, bond bulls are hoping to see 2.95% broken and for the break to be maintained through the end of business.

Much of Europe is out of the office for the May Day holiday today.  This increases volatility potential in the morning (fewer traders = each trader’s decisions carry more weight).

ISM Manufacturing is the day’s only big ticket economic data (scheduled release at 10am ET).  The median forecast calls for a decrease to 58.3 from last month’s 59.3.  Prices are seen holding fairly steady.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

99-07 : +0-02

Treasuries

10 YR

2.9513 : +0.0153

Pricing as of 5/1/18 9:10AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 01
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Apr 58.3 59.3
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Apr 78.0 78.1
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Mar 0.5 0.1


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