Ceilings to Watch if Weakness Continues

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Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again.  While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it’s worth checking in with the important defensive ceilings.  If this week continues to be unfriendly, these ceilings would be like mile markers from bad to worse.

Moving over 3.035 would imply another potential showdown with long-term highs, but we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.  On the positive side, there are several cases to be made for the 3 floors, but 2.945 has seen the most activity (recently and in April/May).  At the risk of stating the obvious, the more of those floors we break, the better bonds are doing.  Vice versa with the ceilings.

With this morning’s CPI data not having an impact on markets and this afternoon’s 30yr bond auction typically not being a huge market mover, the likelihood of a reaction to the Fed tomorrow or the ECB on Thursday is that much stronger.  Bonds would be conveying a profound sense of indecision if they don’t challenge either the ceilings or the floors before the week is over.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 4.0

101-14 : -0-02

Treasuries

10 YR

2.9718 : +0.0148

Pricing as of 6/12/18 9:44AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 12
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* May 0.2 0.2
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* May 2.2 2.1
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*



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