High Bar For Bonds to do Something Meaningful


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When a single, clearly-delineated event was responsible for 30bps of movement in 10yr yields in the matter of a few days, it’s hard to get too worked up about 10bps of movement over the same time frame.  It’s even harder when that 10bps has occurred well-inside that 30 bps AND when any individual day has been limited to about 6bps. 

The above is in reference to the 3.10% to 2.80% drop (and subsequent rebound) in yields surrounding the Italian drama of a few weeks ago.  Since then, bonds have been pretty indecisive and paralyzed.

Without any significant data or events on the calendar, and with this being a Friday during a time of year when traders are more wont to eye the exits early, there is a high bar in place for any of today’s market movement to be classified as “meaningful.”  We’d expect a bit of ongoing volatility surrounding corporate bond issuance, which has been elevated.  Apart from that, there’s always some small chance that a big enough trade will come along to cause a snowball on these days with volume and liquidity that’s low enough as to be vulnerable to such things.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


FNMA 4.0

101-21 : -0-03


10 YR

2.9261 : +0.0291

Pricing as of 6/22/18 9:18AMEST

Original Source