Lots of Data to Digest. Will it Matter?


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MBS Day Ahead: Lots of Data to Digest. Will it Matter?

There’s no question that financial markets have done a great deal to price-in the anticipated economic impact of coronavirus, but have they done enough?  And will it be the simple release of new econ data that provides clarity?  Today may be one of our first real chances to see if it’s not too soon to begin looking for a normal reaction function in the data.  

Retail Sales is the headliner and it’s expected to be quite weak.  Here’s how the chart would look if the forecast holds true.

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45 minutes later, industrial production numbers are expected to show a similar drop, though not well past 2008 lows like Retail Sales.

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Builder confidence is expected to hold its ground a bit better, although this may be more a factor of the economic models feeding the forecasting tools.  It’s hard to imagine any builder is more confident than they were at the lowest points of the past few years.

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While we may see some volatility surrounding this data, it won’t be a defining moment in the bigger picture.  The economic performance that matters is at least a month away.  The weakness of data “on the way down” is much more of a moving target and slightly less interesting that the strength (or lack thereof) of the data on the way back up.

Fed bond buying continues in Treasuries: (https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/treasury-securities-schedule-past/HTPC_0413_0417_2020.pdf ) and MBS (https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/ambs/AMBS-Schedule-041320.pdf).

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


UMBS 2.5

103-32 : +0-06


10 YR

0.6800 : -0.0700

Pricing as of 4/15/20 8:27AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 15
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3853.1
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 185.9
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Mar -8.0 -0.5
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Apr -35.00 -21.50
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Mar 73.8 77.0
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Mar -4.0 0.6
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Apr 55 72
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Feb -0.4 -0.1

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